The aluminum fluoride market continues to rise, with increasing raw material cost pressure and concerns over enterprise profitability [SMM Analysis]

Last week, aluminum fluoride enterprises mainly focused on fulfilling orders, with aluminum fluoride prices continuously rising due to support from the raw material market. As of now, SMM's aluminum fluoride prices are reported at 11,650-12,700 yuan/mt, and SMM's cryolite prices are 6,500-7,200 yuan/mt. Last week, the price of fluorite, the main raw material for aluminum fluoride, remained stable. According to the SMM survey, the current purchase price of fluorite by aluminum fluoride enterprises is generally between 3,450 and 3,800 yuan/mt. In terms of supply, the operating rate of mines remains low, coupled with the gradually cooling temperatures in north China, leading to increased production and transportation costs for fluorite. Additionally, the supply of high-grade products in the market is tight, and fluorite prices are expected to continue rising. As of last Friday, the average price of fluorite recorded by SMM was 3,608 yuan/mt, stable WoW. Besides fluorite prices, supported by rising alumina prices, aluminum hydroxide prices continued to increase, with SMM recording an average price of 3,582 yuan/mt, up 2.58% WoW. Overall, the support from the raw material side for aluminum fluoride has strengthened.

In terms of supply, many enterprises currently have low inventory levels, and high costs have led to poor profitability, resulting in tight circulation of spot cargo. On the demand side, domestic aluminum enterprises remained stable last week, with new capacity gradually starting in Xinjiang and capacity replacement projects steadily advancing in Guizhou. However, due to high alumina costs and procurement difficulties, the commissioning speed of new projects has slowed. According to SMM's survey, an aluminum smelter in Chongqing began technical renovations on part of its 70,000 mt annual capacity last Monday, expected to take about 15 days to complete. Additionally, another aluminum smelter in Chongqing is undergoing technical renovations on old small electrolytic cells to meet the latest national energy consumption requirements for electrolytic cells, expected to take 30-40 days, with overall demand performing well.

Overall, the domestic aluminum fluoride market has seen continuous price increases driven by rising raw material costs, significantly increasing production pressure on enterprises. Market expectations for bargaining are heating up, but high costs have suppressed order enthusiasm, leading to a noticeable decline in market activity. Meanwhile, high alumina prices have pushed the aluminum hydroxide market to historical highs, significantly compressing enterprise profit margins and resulting in poor profitability. Currently, many enterprises are focused on fulfilling existing contract orders and lack the enthusiasm to explore new market orders. According to SMM's survey, due to high raw material prices, aluminum fluoride enterprises generally have a strong desire to raise prices, and aluminum fluoride tender prices in December are expected to break through 13,000 yuan/mt.